{ "advanceCard": { "card": { "date": "2026-08-15", "races": 9, "track": "ELP" }, "contract": "MCRS-ADVANCE-CARD-SHADOW-1.1.0", "guards": { "contains_live_tote_odds": false, "contains_realized_exotic_roi_claims": false, "contains_verified_overlay_claims": false, "eligible_for_live_ledger": false, "exotic_position_roles_internal_only": true, "frozen_prospective_protocol_changed": false, "protected_v1_changed": false, "shadow_position_model_promoted": false }, "historical_advance_only_check": { "archive_pattern": "source_adapter/runtime/data/par_data/*.DRF", "conclusion": "No advance-only straight-win rule is promoted. The broad morning-line discrepancy screen lost money in both periods. The B and Standard shadows are informative but unstable or insufficiently robust and remain research-only.", "date_range": [ "2026-03-01", "2026-06-20" ], "joined_horses": 13356, "joined_races": 2732, "ledger_path": "/Users/markmcgreevy/Documents/Projects/MCRS/source_adapter/runtime/data/results/v1_revised/v1r_horse_ledger.csv", "results": { "advance_B_shadow": { "overall": { "average_final_odds": 4.867111111111111, "average_morning_line": 4.975555555555555, "bets": 45, "races": 45, "roi": 0.3986666666666667, "roi_without_largest_winner": 0.08363636363636373, "win_rate": 0.28888888888888886, "wins": 13 }, "periods": { "2026_mar_apr": { "average_final_odds": 4.607575757575758, "average_morning_line": 4.675757575757576, "bets": 33, "races": 33, "roi": -0.06909090909090909, "roi_without_largest_winner": -0.2796875000000001, "win_rate": 0.24242424242424243, "wins": 8 }, "2026_may_jun": { "average_final_odds": 5.5808333333333335, "average_morning_line": 5.8, "bets": 12, "races": 12, "roi": 1.685, "roi_without_largest_winner": 0.541818181818182, "win_rate": 0.4166666666666667, "wins": 5 } } }, "advance_standard_shadow": { "overall": { "average_final_odds": 4.7102789699570815, "average_morning_line": 4.459227467811159, "bets": 466, "races": 466, "roi": 0.10673819742489266, "roi_without_largest_winner": 0.046107526881720595, "win_rate": 0.2918454935622318, "wins": 136 }, "periods": { "2026_mar_apr": { "average_final_odds": 4.3517981072555205, "average_morning_line": 4.304416403785489, "bets": 317, "races": 317, "roi": 0.10883280757097791, "roi_without_largest_winner": 0.06028481012658227, "win_rate": 0.31230283911671924, "wins": 99 }, "2026_may_jun": { "average_final_odds": 5.472953020134228, "average_morning_line": 4.7885906040268456, "bets": 149, "races": 149, "roi": 0.10228187919463094, "roi_without_largest_winner": -0.08824324324324329, "win_rate": 0.2483221476510067, "wins": 37 } } }, "naive_best_morning_line_discrepancy": { "overall": { "average_final_odds": 15.640022607385077, "average_morning_line": 11.92110022607385, "bets": 1327, "races": 1327, "roi": -0.14944235116804816, "roi_without_largest_winner": -0.17394419306184017, "win_rate": 0.1175584024114544, "wins": 156 }, "periods": { "2026_mar_apr": { "average_final_odds": 15.90915766738661, "average_morning_line": 11.96781857451404, "bets": 926, "races": 926, "roi": -0.16120950323974093, "roi_without_largest_winner": -0.19634594594594612, "win_rate": 0.11339092872570194, "wins": 105 }, "2026_may_jun": { "average_final_odds": 15.01852867830424, "average_morning_line": 11.813216957605986, "bets": 401, "races": 401, "roi": -0.12226932668329171, "roi_without_largest_winner": -0.18085000000000007, "win_rate": 0.12718204488778054, "wins": 51 } } } } }, "method": { "exotic_role_odds_basis": "Internal card labels use morning line as a proxy; the historical study used final odds", "information_cutoff": "Advance card only", "morning_line_interpretation": "Discrepancy signal only; not a verified overlay", "position_probabilities_primary": "Current rated-only Plackett-Luce estimates are preserved; suppressed below 80% coverage", "position_probabilities_shadow": "Discovery-frozen coverage hybrid is calculated only at 80-99% coverage for internal tracking", "uses_live_tote": false, "uses_morning_line": true }, "races": [ { "actionable_horses": 5, "advance_action": "Pass", "coverage_ratio": 0.625, "distance_yards": 1320, "exacta_core": [], "field_size": 8, "historical_shadow_candidate": null, "horses": [ { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0.41250000000000003, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.625, "days_since_last_observed_race": 111, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 0.857142857142857, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #1 with an estimated 15.3% win chance. Model fair odds are 5.5-1 versus a 15.0-1 morning line. Strong ML discrepancy. The horse has been away 111 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 8, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "MO INDIAN LADY", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_signal": "Strong ML discrepancy", "ml_value_ratio": 2.4466273134764793, "model_fair_odds": 5.539614722630217, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.08471576924453152, "model_win_probability": 0.15291420709227996, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.06819843784774844, "morning_line_odds": 15, "morning_line_rank": 6, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "previous_race_date": "2026-04-26", "prior_observed_starts": 1, "program_number": "8", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|1", "race_no": 1, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 74.936320399034, "rating_gap_from_top": 0, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 0.857142857142857, "same_surface_share": 1, "seed": 76.80243282823058, "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "MO TOWN", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 1, "partial_field_races": 1, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.8571428571428571, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 7, "observed_starters": 6, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-26", "race_id": "2026-04-26|CD|7", "race_no": "7", "track": "CD" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 0.857142857142857, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 0.857142857142857, "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 74.936320399034, "v1_identity": "MO INDIAN LADY|23|F", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 5.539614722630217, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.15291420709227996, "v1_reference_rank": 1, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 0 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0.41250000000000003, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.625, "days_since_last_observed_race": 114, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 0.8986855296295486, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 1.2880841406249999, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #2 with an estimated 15.2% win chance. Model fair odds are 5.6-1 versus a 8.0-1 morning line. Positive ML discrepancy. The horse has been away 114 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 8, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "RELEVATE", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 2, "ml_signal": "Positive ML discrepancy", "ml_value_ratio": 1.3663364488848808, "model_fair_odds": 5.586957412535721, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.03057349370232286, "model_win_probability": 0.15181516098720899, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.12124166728488613, "morning_line_odds": 8, "morning_line_rank": 3, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "previous_race_date": "2026-04-23", "prior_observed_starts": 6, "program_number": "3", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|1", "race_no": 1, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 74.77683227087327, "rating_gap_from_top": 0.15948812816073143, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 1.157582578125, "same_surface_share": 0.8986855296295486, "seed": 76.96924371341318, "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "DAREDEVIL", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 6, "partial_field_races": 6, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.2, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 10, "observed_starters": 2, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-23", "race_id": "2026-04-23|OP|8", "race_no": "8", "track": "OP" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.8, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 10, "observed_starters": 8, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-02-16", "race_id": "2026-02-16|OP|2", "race_no": "2", "track": "OP" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.5, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 6, "observed_starters": 3, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-01-04", "race_id": "2026-01-04|FG|4", "race_no": "4", "track": "FG" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 1.157582578125, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0.13050156249999997, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 1.2880841406249999, "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 74.77683227087327, "v1_identity": "RELEVATE|22|F", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 5.586957412535721, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.15181516098720899, "v1_reference_rank": 2, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 0.15948812816073143 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0.41250000000000003, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.625, "days_since_last_observed_race": 111, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 0.8303642090247322, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 2.0219881696428574, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #3 with an estimated 14.2% win chance. Model fair odds are 6.0-1 versus a 15.0-1 morning line. Strong ML discrepancy. The horse has been away 111 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 8, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "I'M A COOKIE LOVER", "internal_exotic_role": "Exotic include watch — underneath", "internal_exotic_role_basis": "Morning-line proxy only; historical validation used final odds", "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_signal": "Strong ML discrepancy", "ml_value_ratio": 2.278083629304759, "model_fair_odds": 6.0234471615438405, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.074181788983799, "model_win_probability": 0.14238022683154744, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.06819843784774844, "morning_line_odds": 15, "morning_line_rank": 6, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "previous_race_date": "2026-04-26", "prior_observed_starts": 6, "program_number": "4", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|1", "race_no": 1, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 73.35817708862099, "rating_gap_from_top": 1.5781433104130116, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 1.678986607142857, "same_surface_share": 0.8303642090247322, "seed": 80.65192325146766, "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOBLE MISSION", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 6, "partial_field_races": 5, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.8571428571428571, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 7, "observed_starters": 6, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-26", "race_id": "2026-04-26|CD|7", "race_no": "7", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.2727272727272727, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 11, "observed_starters": 3, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-10-15", "race_id": "2025-10-15|IND|5", "race_no": "5", "track": "IND" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.5, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 8, "observed_starters": 4, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-07-19", "race_id": "2025-07-19|ELP|2", "race_no": "2", "track": "ELP" } ], "singleton_field_races": 1, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 1.678986607142857, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0.3430015625, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 2.021988169642857, "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 73.35817708862099, "v1_identity": "I'M A COOKIE LOVER|21|M", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 6.0234471615438405, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.14238022683154744, "v1_reference_rank": 3, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 1.5781433104130116 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "C", "confidence_score": 0.515625, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.625, "days_since_last_observed_race": 56, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 0.8996332459301684, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 2.0987610541210935, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #4 with an estimated 13.9% win chance. Model fair odds are 6.2-1 versus a 3.0-1 morning line. Below model fair. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 8, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "DIAGRAM", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": false, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 4, "ml_signal": "Below model fair", "ml_value_ratio": 0.5578912301999056, "model_fair_odds": 6.1698563868206096, "model_minus_ml_probability": -0.13332094384101736, "model_win_probability": 0.1394728075499764, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.27279375139099377, "morning_line_odds": 3, "morning_line_rank": 1, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "previous_race_date": "2026-06-20", "prior_observed_starts": 9, "program_number": "11", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|1", "race_no": 1, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 72.90200865032182, "rating_gap_from_top": 2.0343117487121845, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 1.888115219550781, "same_surface_share": 0.8996332459301684, "seed": 77.816684952584, "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "LIAM'S MAP", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 2, "historical_races": 9, "partial_field_races": 7, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 1, "coverage_status": "complete", "declared_field_size": 11, "observed_starters": 11, "official_chart_present": true, "race_date": "2026-06-20", "race_id": "2026-06-20|CD|10", "race_no": "10", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.6, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 10, "observed_starters": 6, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-05-24", "race_id": "2026-05-24|CD|10", "race_no": "10", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.7, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 10, "observed_starters": 7, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-29", "race_id": "2026-04-29|CD|5", "race_no": "5", "track": "CD" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 1.888115219550781, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0.2106458345703125, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 2.0987610541210935, "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 72.90200865032182, "v1_identity": "DIAGRAM|22|F", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 6.1698563868206096, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.1394728075499764, "v1_reference_rank": 4, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 2.0343117487121845 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0.41250000000000003, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.625, "days_since_last_observed_race": 169, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 1.1164278906249998, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #5 with an estimated 11.9% win chance. Model fair odds are 7.4-1 versus a 10.0-1 morning line. Positive ML discrepancy. The horse has been away 169 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 8, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "SYNOPTIC", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 5, "ml_signal": "Positive ML discrepancy", "ml_value_ratio": 1.3082576822166816, "model_fair_odds": 7.408129491249655, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.01973478878660967, "model_win_probability": 0.11893251656515287, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.0991977277785432, "morning_line_odds": 10, "morning_line_rank": 4, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "previous_race_date": "2026-02-27", "prior_observed_starts": 6, "program_number": "2", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|1", "race_no": 1, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 69.37953936762777, "rating_gap_from_top": 5.556781031406231, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 1.116427890625, "same_surface_share": 1, "seed": 65.50829673740786, "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "SILVER STATE", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 6, "partial_field_races": 3, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.875, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 8, "observed_starters": 7, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-02-27", "race_id": "2026-02-27|OP|6", "race_no": "6", "track": "OP" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.14285714285714285, "coverage_status": "singleton", "declared_field_size": 7, "observed_starters": 1, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-01-17", "race_id": "2026-01-17|HOU|4", "race_no": "4", "track": "HOU" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.14285714285714285, "coverage_status": "singleton", "declared_field_size": 7, "observed_starters": 1, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-01-02", "race_id": "2026-01-02|HOU|6", "race_no": "6", "track": "HOU" } ], "singleton_field_races": 3, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 1.116427890625, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 1.116427890625, "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 69.37953936762777, "v1_identity": "SYNOPTIC|23|F", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 7.408129491249655, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.11893251656515287, "v1_reference_rank": 5, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 5.556781031406231 }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.625, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "MACLEAN'S LULLABY", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.21823500111279504, "morning_line_odds": 4, "morning_line_rank": 2, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "5", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|1", "race_no": 1, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.625, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "HONEY'S ON FIRE", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.06819843784774844, "morning_line_odds": 15, "morning_line_rank": 6, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "6", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|1", "race_no": 1, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.625, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "WHISKEY BUSINESS", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.08393653888953655, "morning_line_odds": 12, "morning_line_rank": 5, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "9", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|1", "race_no": 1, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null } ], "internal_exotic_role_watches": [ { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "I'M A COOKIE LOVER", "internal_exotic_role": "Exotic include watch — underneath", "internal_exotic_role_basis": "Morning-line proxy only; historical validation used final odds", "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_value_ratio": 2.278083629304759, "model_fair_odds": 6.0234471615438405, "model_win_probability": 0.14238022683154744, "morning_line_odds": 15, "program_number": "4", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "top4_probability": null } ], "longshot_exotic_includes": [], "morning_line_value_watch": null, "most_likely_winner": { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "MO INDIAN LADY", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_value_ratio": 2.4466273134764793, "model_fair_odds": 5.539614722630217, "model_win_probability": 0.15291420709227996, "morning_line_odds": 15, "program_number": "8", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "top4_probability": null }, "non_actionable_rated_horses": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_reason": "Position probabilities require 80-100% coverage and at least four rated entrants.", "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "race_confidence": "PASS", "race_confidence_reason": "MCRS #1 is outside the first two morning-line choices.", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|1", "race_no": 1, "race_type": "Claiming", "rated_horses": 5, "superfecta_core": [], "surface": "dirt", "trifecta_core": [], "unrated_horses": 3 }, { "actionable_horses": 0, "advance_action": "Pass", "coverage_ratio": 0, "distance_yards": 1320, "exacta_core": [], "field_size": 8, "historical_shadow_candidate": null, "horses": [ { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "KING CRUSHER", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.2900579655184024, "morning_line_odds": 2.5, "morning_line_rank": 1, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "2", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|2", "race_no": 2, "race_type": "MdClm", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "BEAU LIAM", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "BLAME THROWER", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.06345017995715052, "morning_line_odds": 15, "morning_line_rank": 5, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "3", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|2", "race_no": 2, "race_type": "MdClm", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "MR. FETE", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.1450289827592012, "morning_line_odds": 6, "morning_line_rank": 4, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "4", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|2", "race_no": 2, "race_type": "MdClm", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "VOLATILE", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "HIGH STATUS", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.03274847997788414, "morning_line_odds": 30, "morning_line_rank": 7, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "5", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|2", "race_no": 2, "race_type": "MdClm", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "FARAZ", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.03274847997788414, "morning_line_odds": 30, "morning_line_rank": 7, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "6", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|2", "race_no": 2, "race_type": "MdClm", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "AMAZING MAX", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.20304057586288168, "morning_line_odds": 4, "morning_line_rank": 2, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "7", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|2", "race_no": 2, "race_type": "MdClm", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "CAFHAH", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.04834299425306706, "morning_line_odds": 20, "morning_line_rank": 6, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "8", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|2", "race_no": 2, "race_type": "MdClm", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "SILVERBACK", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.1845823416935288, "morning_line_odds": 4.5, "morning_line_rank": 3, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "10", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|2", "race_no": 2, "race_type": "MdClm", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null } ], "internal_exotic_role_watches": [], "longshot_exotic_includes": [], "morning_line_value_watch": null, "most_likely_winner": null, "non_actionable_rated_horses": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_reason": "Position probabilities require 80-100% coverage and at least four rated entrants.", "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "race_confidence": "PASS", "race_confidence_reason": "STATUS UNCONFIRMED — the active field, prior-race counts, MCRS #1, or morning-line comparison is incomplete.", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|2", "race_no": 2, "race_type": "MdClm", "rated_horses": 0, "superfecta_core": [], "surface": "dirt", "trifecta_core": [], "unrated_horses": 8 }, { "actionable_horses": 9, "advance_action": "Pass", "coverage_ratio": 0.8181818181818182, "distance_yards": 1320, "exacta_core": [], "field_size": 11, "historical_shadow_candidate": null, "horses": [ { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "C", "confidence_score": 0.528, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": 0.2636650196012521, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": 0.38564016307771626, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": 0.5003019526706586, "coverage_ratio": 0.8181818181818182, "days_since_last_observed_race": 121, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 3.2287364048381004, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #1 with an estimated 13.5% win chance. Model fair odds are 6.4-1 versus a 4.5-1 morning line. Below model fair. The horse has been away 121 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 11, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "QUINN'S PROMISE", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_signal": "Below model fair", "ml_value_ratio": 0.7422574660490372, "model_fair_odds": 6.409827790990037, "model_minus_ml_probability": -0.008220596206807207, "model_win_probability": 0.13495590291800677, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.14317649912481398, "morning_line_odds": 4.5, "morning_line_rank": 3, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": "current_rated_only", "position_probability_shadow_model": "discovery_frozen_coverage_hybrid", "position_probability_status": "current_primary_hybrid_shadow", "previous_race_date": "2026-04-16", "prior_observed_starts": 11, "program_number": "4", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|3", "race_no": 3, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 88.46839196179678, "rating_gap_from_top": 0, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 3.2287364048381, "same_surface_share": 1, "seed": 90.04609520489828, "shadow_top2_probability": 0.27481953400386516, "shadow_top3_probability": 0.40214094911920106, "shadow_top4_probability": 0.5206444274826927, "sire": "PROMISES FULFILLED", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 11, "partial_field_races": 10, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.8333333333333334, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 6, "observed_starters": 5, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-16", "race_id": "2026-04-16|KEE|6", "race_no": "6", "track": "KEE" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.6, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 5, "observed_starters": 3, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-02-27", "race_id": "2026-02-27|GP|6", "race_no": "6", "track": "GP" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.6666666666666666, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 12, "observed_starters": 8, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-09-26", "race_id": "2025-09-26|CD|9", "race_no": "9", "track": "CD" } ], "singleton_field_races": 1, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 3.2287364048381, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 3.2287364048381, "top2_probability": 0.31677377748546354, "top3_probability": 0.4608344343270601, "top4_probability": 0.5937557588427418, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 88.46839196179678, "v1_identity": "QUINN'S PROMISE|22|F", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 6.409827790990037, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.13495590291800677, "v1_reference_rank": 1, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 0 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "C", "confidence_score": 0.528, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": 0.24240602581802453, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": 0.35750993846999696, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": 0.46786161927777725, "coverage_ratio": 0.8181818181818182, "days_since_last_observed_race": 188, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 2.562088368055556, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #2 with an estimated 12.3% win chance. Model fair odds are 7.1-1 versus a 5.0-1 morning line. Below model fair. The horse has been away 188 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 11, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "WHAT'S UP DOG", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 2, "ml_signal": "Below model fair", "ml_value_ratio": 0.7385337867832538, "model_fair_odds": 7.124205158078828, "model_minus_ml_probability": -0.008156159733870516, "model_win_probability": 0.12308896446387563, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.13124512419774614, "morning_line_odds": 5, "morning_line_rank": 4, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": "current_rated_only", "position_probability_shadow_model": "discovery_frozen_coverage_hybrid", "position_probability_status": "current_primary_hybrid_shadow", "previous_race_date": "2026-02-08", "prior_observed_starts": 5, "program_number": "1", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|3", "race_no": 3, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 86.43334336659893, "rating_gap_from_top": 2.03504859519785, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 2.5620883680555555, "same_surface_share": 1, "seed": 83.28852578841308, "shadow_top2_probability": 0.2528017981145711, "shadow_top3_probability": 0.3732580877806202, "shadow_top4_probability": 0.4877985519394162, "sire": "BEAU LIAM", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 1, "historical_races": 5, "partial_field_races": 4, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.8, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 10, "observed_starters": 8, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-02-08", "race_id": "2026-02-08|OP|3", "race_no": "3", "track": "OP" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.8888888888888888, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 9, "observed_starters": 8, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-01-02", "race_id": "2026-01-02|OP|5", "race_no": "5", "track": "OP" }, { "coverage_ratio": 1, "coverage_status": "complete", "declared_field_size": 6, "observed_starters": 6, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-11-09", "race_id": "2025-11-09|CD|8", "race_no": "8", "track": "CD" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 2.5620883680555555, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 2.5620883680555555, "top2_probability": 0.291902268683366, "top3_probability": 0.42927443550432226, "top4_probability": 0.5594523553038806, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 86.43334336659893, "v1_identity": "WHAT'S UP DOG|23|F", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 7.124205158078828, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.12308896446387563, "v1_reference_rank": 2, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 2.03504859519785 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "C", "confidence_score": 0.66, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": 0.21889370602207348, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": 0.32570702516373, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": 0.43029097736569294, "coverage_ratio": 0.8181818181818182, "days_since_last_observed_race": 51, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 1.2125, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #3 with an estimated 11.0% win chance. Model fair odds are 8.1-1 versus a 10.0-1 morning line. Positive ML discrepancy. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 11, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "BEAUXBATONS", "internal_exotic_role": "Exotic include watch — underneath", "internal_exotic_role_basis": "Morning-line proxy only; historical validation used final odds", "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": false, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_signal": "Positive ML discrepancy", "ml_value_ratio": 1.2124996645218742, "model_fair_odds": 8.07216745856803, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.038638992666854305, "model_win_probability": 0.1102272422292613, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.07158824956240699, "morning_line_odds": 10, "morning_line_rank": 6, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": "current_rated_only", "position_probability_shadow_model": "discovery_frozen_coverage_hybrid", "position_probability_status": "current_primary_hybrid_shadow", "previous_race_date": "2026-06-25", "prior_observed_starts": 2, "program_number": "5", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|3", "race_no": 3, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 83.99317611230003, "rating_gap_from_top": 4.475215849496749, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 1.2124999999999997, "same_surface_share": 1, "seed": 79.52427747177518, "shadow_top2_probability": 0.22840875542504835, "shadow_top3_probability": 0.3404831385563368, "shadow_top4_probability": 0.44953945425643155, "sire": "BEAU LIAM", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 1, "historical_races": 2, "partial_field_races": 1, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 1, "coverage_status": "complete", "declared_field_size": 12, "observed_starters": 12, "official_chart_present": true, "race_date": "2026-06-25", "race_id": "2026-06-25|CD|1", "race_no": "1", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.875, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 8, "observed_starters": 7, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-05-14", "race_id": "2026-05-14|LRL|4", "race_no": "4", "track": "LRL" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 1.2124999999999997, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 1.2124999999999997, "top2_probability": 0.2641966602125781, "top3_probability": 0.39304194337073917, "top4_probability": 0.5187189314409144, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 83.99317611230003, "v1_identity": "BEAUXBATONS|23|F", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 8.07216745856803, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.1102272422292613, "v1_reference_rank": 3, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 4.475215849496749 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "C", "confidence_score": 0.66, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": 0.2015428874357259, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": 0.30178705019491175, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": 0.4014233881451935, "coverage_ratio": 0.8181818181818182, "days_since_last_observed_race": 50, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 0.9498550095441913, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 3.0617465195312494, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #4 with an estimated 10.1% win chance. Model fair odds are 8.9-1 versus a 4.0-1 morning line. Below model fair. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": null, "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": false, "field_size": 11, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "NO TIME LEFT", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": false, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 4, "ml_signal": "Below model fair", "ml_value_ratio": 0.5044871553697701, "model_fair_odds": 8.911055111671155, "model_minus_ml_probability": -0.05659671796334137, "model_win_probability": 0.10089743107395402, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.1574941490372954, "morning_line_odds": 4, "morning_line_rank": 2, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": "current_rated_only", "position_probability_shadow_model": "discovery_frozen_coverage_hybrid", "position_probability_status": "current_primary_hybrid_shadow", "previous_race_date": "2026-06-26", "prior_observed_starts": 7, "program_number": "2", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|3", "race_no": 3, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 82.0377487726531, "rating_gap_from_top": 6.43064318914368, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 2.9082152695312495, "same_surface_share": 0.9498550095441913, "seed": 84.88204161858054, "shadow_top2_probability": 0.2103834166006789, "shadow_top3_probability": 0.31575448512052334, "shadow_top4_probability": 0.41999153449892324, "sire": "PRACTICAL JOKE", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 3, "historical_races": 7, "partial_field_races": 4, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 1, "coverage_status": "complete", "declared_field_size": 11, "observed_starters": 11, "official_chart_present": true, "race_date": "2026-06-26", "race_id": "2026-06-26|CD|7", "race_no": "7", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 1, "coverage_status": "complete", "declared_field_size": 7, "observed_starters": 7, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-28", "race_id": "2026-04-28|CD|4", "race_no": "4", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 1, "coverage_status": "complete", "declared_field_size": 6, "observed_starters": 6, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-02-28", "race_id": "2026-02-28|FG|5", "race_no": "5", "track": "FG" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 2.9082152695312495, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0.15353124999999998, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 3.0617465195312494, "top2_probability": 0.24363432288896394, "top3_probability": 0.3654368113525622, "top4_probability": 0.48672588778450915, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 82.0377487726531, "v1_identity": "NO TIME LEFT|23|F", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 8.911055111671155, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.10089743107395402, "v1_reference_rank": 4, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 6.43064318914368 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "C", "confidence_score": 0.528, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": 0.1897659387412155, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": 0.2853396309371059, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": 0.38127913918268325, "coverage_ratio": 0.8181818181818182, "days_since_last_observed_race": 120, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 0.7966562499999998, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #5 with an estimated 9.5% win chance. Model fair odds are 9.6-1 versus a 12.0-1 morning line. Positive ML discrepancy. The horse has been away 120 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 11, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "NOROOMFORMISCHIEF", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 5, "ml_signal": "Positive ML discrepancy", "ml_value_ratio": 1.2302840514887192, "model_fair_odds": 9.566665465807837, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.0340625620232494, "model_win_probability": 0.09463723472990147, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.06057467270665207, "morning_line_odds": 12, "morning_line_rank": 7, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": "current_rated_only", "position_probability_shadow_model": "discovery_frozen_coverage_hybrid", "position_probability_status": "current_primary_hybrid_shadow", "previous_race_date": "2026-04-17", "prior_observed_starts": 4, "program_number": "7", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|3", "race_no": 3, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 80.62150660833652, "rating_gap_from_top": 7.846885353460266, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 0.79665625, "same_surface_share": 1, "seed": 79.42195039736906, "shadow_top2_probability": 0.1981379333431569, "shadow_top3_probability": 0.29871556298609225, "shadow_top4_probability": 0.3992991605876995, "sire": "MAXIMUS MISCHIEF", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 4, "partial_field_races": 4, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.5, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 8, "observed_starters": 4, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-17", "race_id": "2026-04-17|KEE|4", "race_no": "4", "track": "KEE" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.8, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 10, "observed_starters": 8, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-10-22", "race_id": "2025-10-22|KEE|2", "race_no": "2", "track": "KEE" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.8181818181818182, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 11, "observed_starters": 9, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-09-17", "race_id": "2025-09-17|CD|5", "race_no": "5", "track": "CD" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 0.79665625, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 0.79665625, "top2_probability": 0.2296265923092699, "top3_probability": 0.34629390670164206, "top4_probability": 0.4640635399579979, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 80.62150660833652, "v1_identity": "NOROOMFORMISCHIEF|23|F", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 9.566665465807837, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.09463723472990147, "v1_reference_rank": 5, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 7.846885353460266 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "C", "confidence_score": 0.528, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": 0.17204724717057107, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": 0.260281272160359, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": 0.3501410348917158, "coverage_ratio": 0.8181818181818182, "days_since_last_observed_race": 100, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 0.643125, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #6 with an estimated 8.5% win chance. Model fair odds are 10.7-1 versus a 3.5-1 morning line. Below model fair. The horse has been away 100 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 11, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "POPPY WOPPY", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 6, "ml_signal": "Below model fair", "ml_value_ratio": 0.38394991851046073, "model_fair_odds": 10.720278565125929, "model_minus_ml_probability": -0.08967129481689248, "model_win_probability": 0.08532220411343572, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.1749934989303282, "morning_line_odds": 3.5, "morning_line_rank": 1, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": "current_rated_only", "position_probability_shadow_model": "discovery_frozen_coverage_hybrid", "position_probability_status": "current_primary_hybrid_shadow", "previous_race_date": "2026-05-07", "prior_observed_starts": 3, "program_number": "9", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|3", "race_no": 3, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 78.33051841257355, "rating_gap_from_top": 10.13787354922323, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 0.643125, "same_surface_share": 1, "seed": 80.56048115719409, "shadow_top2_probability": 0.17969943571386182, "shadow_top3_probability": 0.27270489184092866, "shadow_top4_probability": 0.36720287260364404, "sire": "MITOLE", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 3, "partial_field_races": 3, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.45454545454545453, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 11, "observed_starters": 5, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-05-07", "race_id": "2026-05-07|CD|7", "race_no": "7", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.8333333333333334, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 6, "observed_starters": 5, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-15", "race_id": "2026-04-15|KEE|1", "race_no": "1", "track": "KEE" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.5555555555555556, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 9, "observed_starters": 5, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-11-21", "race_id": "2025-11-21|CD|10", "race_no": "10", "track": "CD" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 0.643125, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 0.643125, "top2_probability": 0.20848076762348866, "top3_probability": 0.3168958495393274, "top4_probability": 0.42852351731842697, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 78.33051841257355, "v1_identity": "POPPY WOPPY|23|F", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 10.720278565125929, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.08532220411343572, "v1_reference_rank": 6, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 10.13787354922323 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "C", "confidence_score": 0.528, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": 0.15020723076340678, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": 0.22889503596525973, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": 0.31040727661272544, "coverage_ratio": 0.8181818181818182, "days_since_last_observed_race": 246, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 0.643125, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #7 with an estimated 7.4% win chance. Model fair odds are 12.5-1 versus a 8.0-1 morning line. Below model fair. The horse has been away 246 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 11, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "BRUNIA", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 7, "ml_signal": "Below model fair", "ml_value_ratio": 0.6660062464702843, "model_fair_odds": 12.513386770316966, "model_minus_ml_probability": -0.013496055412910296, "model_win_probability": 0.0740006940522538, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.0874967494651641, "morning_line_odds": 8, "morning_line_rank": 5, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": "current_rated_only", "position_probability_shadow_model": "discovery_frozen_coverage_hybrid", "position_probability_status": "current_primary_hybrid_shadow", "previous_race_date": "2025-12-12", "prior_observed_starts": 3, "program_number": "3", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|3", "race_no": 3, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 75.18288869048737, "rating_gap_from_top": 13.285503271309409, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 0.643125, "same_surface_share": 1, "seed": 72.1175807402742, "shadow_top2_probability": 0.15694984445863677, "shadow_top3_probability": 0.2400466209304083, "shadow_top4_probability": 0.32606709920822713, "sire": "TEKTON", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 3, "partial_field_races": 3, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.6666666666666666, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 12, "observed_starters": 8, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-12-12", "race_id": "2025-12-12|OP|10", "race_no": "10", "track": "OP" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.75, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 12, "observed_starters": 9, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-11-01", "race_id": "2025-11-01|CD|9", "race_no": "9", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.2727272727272727, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 11, "observed_starters": 3, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-09-12", "race_id": "2025-09-12|CD|3", "race_no": "3", "track": "CD" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 0.643125, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 0.643125, "top2_probability": 0.18231009291604805, "top3_probability": 0.2797129365562569, "top4_probability": 0.3823488687273421, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 75.18288869048737, "v1_identity": "BRUNIA|23|F", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 12.513386770316966, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.0740006940522538, "v1_reference_rank": 7, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 13.285503271309409 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "C", "confidence_score": 0.66, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": 0.14322116296089524, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": 0.21874275897519818, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": 0.2973872409676143, "coverage_ratio": 0.8181818181818182, "days_since_last_observed_race": 50, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 0.9512523707853417, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 1.9999999999999996, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #8 with an estimated 7.0% win chance. Model fair odds are 13.2-1 versus a 20.0-1 morning line. Positive ML discrepancy. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 11, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "CLOUD NUMBER NINE", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": false, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 8, "ml_signal": "Positive ML discrepancy", "ml_value_ratio": 1.478703020183134, "model_fair_odds": 13.201634617206096, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.03291582261888843, "model_win_probability": 0.07041442953253019, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.037498606913641756, "morning_line_odds": 20, "morning_line_rank": 9, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": "current_rated_only", "position_probability_shadow_model": "discovery_frozen_coverage_hybrid", "position_probability_status": "current_primary_hybrid_shadow", "previous_race_date": "2026-06-26", "prior_observed_starts": 11, "program_number": "10", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|3", "race_no": 3, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 74.08453094207546, "rating_gap_from_top": 14.383861019721323, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 1.9025047415706835, "same_surface_share": 0.9512523707853417, "seed": 75.0303630254305, "shadow_top2_probability": 0.1496680493688356, "shadow_top3_probability": 0.22946562137433849, "shadow_top4_probability": 0.3125475423283983, "sire": "CLOUD COMPUTING", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 1, "historical_races": 11, "partial_field_races": 10, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 1, "coverage_status": "complete", "declared_field_size": 11, "observed_starters": 11, "official_chart_present": true, "race_date": "2026-06-26", "race_id": "2026-06-26|CD|7", "race_no": "7", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.4, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 10, "observed_starters": 4, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-05-28", "race_id": "2026-05-28|CD|8", "race_no": "8", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.5, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 12, "observed_starters": 6, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-19", "race_id": "2026-04-19|KEE|3", "race_no": "3", "track": "KEE" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 1.9025047415706835, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0.09749525842931649, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 2, "top2_probability": 0.17391601143104568, "top3_probability": 0.26760696591559646, "top4_probability": 0.36703402081973613, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 74.08453094207546, "v1_identity": "CLOUD NUMBER NINE|22|F", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 13.201634617206096, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.07041442953253019, "v1_reference_rank": 8, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 14.383861019721323 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "C", "confidence_score": 0.528, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": 0.07310956644137781, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": 0.11404370830158712, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": 0.15875744662827848, "coverage_ratio": 0.8181818181818182, "days_since_last_observed_race": 128, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 0.25, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #9 with an estimated 3.5% win chance. Model fair odds are 27.4-1 versus a 15.0-1 morning line. Below model fair. The horse has been away 128 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 11, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "STEPHENS DREAM", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 9, "ml_signal": "Below model fair", "ml_value_ratio": 0.5642342672419478, "model_fair_odds": 27.35701574491413, "model_minus_ml_probability": -0.013952279871533066, "model_win_probability": 0.03526464170262174, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.049216921574154804, "morning_line_odds": 15, "morning_line_rank": 8, 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"partial", "declared_field_size": 12, "observed_starters": 11, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-09", "race_id": "2026-04-09|OP|8", "race_no": "8", "track": "OP" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 0.25, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 0.25, "top2_probability": 0.08915950644977609, "top3_probability": 0.1409027167324934, "top4_probability": 0.1993771198044506, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 58.79486516825568, "v1_identity": "STEPHENS DREAM|23|F", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 27.35701574491413, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.03526464170262174, "v1_reference_rank": 9, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 29.6735267935411 }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.8181818181818182, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 11, "horse": "FOOLISH FRONT FIFI", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.037498606913641756, "morning_line_odds": 20, "morning_line_rank": 9, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": "current_rated_only", "position_probability_shadow_model": "discovery_frozen_coverage_hybrid", "position_probability_status": "current_primary_hybrid_shadow", "program_number": "6", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|3", "race_no": 3, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.8181818181818182, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 11, "horse": "RANSLILDREAM", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.049216921574154804, "morning_line_odds": 15, "morning_line_rank": 8, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": "current_rated_only", "position_probability_shadow_model": "discovery_frozen_coverage_hybrid", "position_probability_status": "current_primary_hybrid_shadow", "program_number": "11", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|3", "race_no": 3, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null } ], "internal_exotic_role_watches": [ { "confidence_grade": "C", "horse": "BEAUXBATONS", "internal_exotic_role": "Exotic include watch — underneath", "internal_exotic_role_basis": "Morning-line proxy only; historical validation used final odds", "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_value_ratio": 1.2124996645218742, "model_fair_odds": 8.07216745856803, "model_win_probability": 0.1102272422292613, "morning_line_odds": 10, "program_number": "5", "shadow_top4_probability": 0.44953945425643155, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "top4_probability": 0.5187189314409144 } ], "longshot_exotic_includes": [], "morning_line_value_watch": { "confidence_grade": "C", "horse": "CLOUD NUMBER NINE", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 8, "ml_value_ratio": 1.478703020183134, "model_fair_odds": 13.201634617206096, "model_win_probability": 0.07041442953253019, "morning_line_odds": 20, "program_number": "10", "shadow_top4_probability": 0.3125475423283983, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "top4_probability": 0.36703402081973613 }, "most_likely_winner": { "confidence_grade": "C", "horse": "QUINN'S PROMISE", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_value_ratio": 0.7422574660490372, "model_fair_odds": 6.409827790990037, "model_win_probability": 0.13495590291800677, "morning_line_odds": 4.5, "program_number": "4", "shadow_top4_probability": 0.5206444274826927, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "top4_probability": 0.5937557588427418 }, "non_actionable_rated_horses": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": "current_rated_only", "position_probability_reason": "Partial coverage: current output preserved; frozen hybrid calculated for internal shadow tracking.", "position_probability_shadow_model": "discovery_frozen_coverage_hybrid", "position_probability_status": "current_primary_hybrid_shadow", "race_confidence": "PASS", "race_confidence_reason": "MCRS #1 is outside the first two morning-line choices.", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|3", "race_no": 3, "race_type": "Claiming", "rated_horses": 9, "superfecta_core": [], "surface": "dirt", "trifecta_core": [], "unrated_horses": 2 }, { "actionable_horses": 0, "advance_action": "Pass", "coverage_ratio": 0, "distance_yards": 1760, "exacta_core": [], "field_size": 10, "historical_shadow_candidate": null, "horses": [ { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1760, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 10, "horse": "CASTIGLIONE", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.11285711780283765, "morning_line_odds": 6, "morning_line_rank": 3, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "1", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|4", "race_no": 4, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "turf", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1760, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 10, "horse": "MYSTIC RULER", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.07181816587453305, "morning_line_odds": 10, "morning_line_rank": 5, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "2", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|4", "race_no": 4, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "turf", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1760, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 10, "horse": "EPIC ROLL", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.07181816587453305, "morning_line_odds": 10, "morning_line_rank": 5, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "3", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|4", "race_no": 4, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "turf", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1760, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 10, "horse": "BOLD SPEAKER", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.15799996492397272, "morning_line_odds": 4, "morning_line_rank": 2, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "4", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|4", "race_no": 4, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "turf", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1760, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 10, "horse": "TRAVELIN", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.11285711780283765, "morning_line_odds": 6, "morning_line_rank": 3, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "5", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|4", "race_no": 4, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "turf", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1760, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 10, "horse": "PRIDE ROCK", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.08777775829109595, "morning_line_odds": 8, "morning_line_rank": 4, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "6", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|4", "race_no": 4, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "LIAM'S MAP", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "turf", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1760, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 10, "horse": "CARIBBEAN WARRIOR", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.08777775829109595, "morning_line_odds": 8, "morning_line_rank": 4, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "7", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|4", "race_no": 4, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "turf", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1760, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 10, "horse": "WYGUY", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.06076921727845105, "morning_line_odds": 12, "morning_line_rank": 6, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "8", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|4", "race_no": 4, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "turf", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1760, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 10, "horse": "MARKET CLOSED", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.1755555165821919, "morning_line_odds": 3.5, "morning_line_rank": 1, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "9", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|4", "race_no": 4, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "turf", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1760, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 10, "horse": "FOOLISH OPTIMIST", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.06076921727845105, "morning_line_odds": 12, "morning_line_rank": 6, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "10", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|4", "race_no": 4, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "turf", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null } ], "internal_exotic_role_watches": [], "longshot_exotic_includes": [], "morning_line_value_watch": null, "most_likely_winner": null, "non_actionable_rated_horses": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_reason": "Position probabilities require 80-100% coverage and at least four rated entrants.", "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "race_confidence": "PASS", "race_confidence_reason": "STATUS UNCONFIRMED — the active field, prior-race counts, MCRS #1, or morning-line comparison is incomplete.", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|4", "race_no": 4, "race_type": "MSW", "rated_horses": 0, "superfecta_core": [], "surface": "turf", "trifecta_core": [], "unrated_horses": 10 }, { "actionable_horses": 3, "advance_action": "Pass", "coverage_ratio": 0.375, "distance_yards": 1320, "exacta_core": [], "field_size": 8, "historical_shadow_candidate": null, "horses": [ { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0.309375, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.375, "days_since_last_observed_race": 90, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 3.4360029653276616, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #1 with an estimated 22.1% win chance. Model fair odds are 3.5-1 versus a 8.0-1 morning line. Strong ML discrepancy. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 8, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "GREAT MOMENT", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": false, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_signal": "Strong ML discrepancy", "ml_value_ratio": 1.9856483756830083, "model_fair_odds": 3.5325245447368028, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.124689974838982, "model_win_probability": 0.22062759729811204, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.09593762245913004, "morning_line_odds": 8, "morning_line_rank": 4, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "previous_race_date": "2026-05-17", "prior_observed_starts": 8, "program_number": "7", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|5", "race_no": 5, "race_type": "MSW", "rating": 93.72337883464535, "rating_gap_from_top": 0, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 3.4360029653276625, "same_surface_share": 1, "seed": 84.236557956638, "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "FLATTER", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 2, "historical_races": 8, "partial_field_races": 6, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.7272727272727273, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 11, "observed_starters": 8, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-05-17", "race_id": "2026-05-17|CD|7", "race_no": "7", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 1, "coverage_status": "complete", "declared_field_size": 8, "observed_starters": 8, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-10", "race_id": "2026-04-10|KEE|6", "race_no": "6", "track": "KEE" }, { "coverage_ratio": 1, "coverage_status": "complete", "declared_field_size": 8, "observed_starters": 8, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-02-21", "race_id": "2026-02-21|FG|7", "race_no": "7", "track": "FG" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 3.4360029653276625, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 3.4360029653276625, "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 93.72337883464535, "v1_identity": "GREAT MOMENT|22|G", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 3.5325245447368028, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.22062759729811204, "v1_reference_rank": 1, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 0 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0.24750000000000003, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.375, "days_since_last_observed_race": 395, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 0.68, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 0.78125, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #2 with an estimated 15.9% win chance. Model fair odds are 5.3-1 versus a 5.0-1 morning line. Near model fair. The horse has been away 395 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 8, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "DONTWORRYBOUTNOTHN", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 2, "ml_signal": "Near model fair", "ml_value_ratio": 0.9568487457367774, "model_fair_odds": 5.270583544925876, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.015568357267434496, "model_win_probability": 0.15947479095612957, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.14390643368869507, "morning_line_odds": 5, "morning_line_rank": 3, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "previous_race_date": "2025-07-16", "prior_observed_starts": 2, "program_number": "4", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|5", "race_no": 5, "race_type": "MSW", "rating": 86.54658494934291, "rating_gap_from_top": 7.1767938853024305, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 0.53125, "same_surface_share": 0.68, "seed": 86.67707926749901, "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "MUNNINGS", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 2, "partial_field_races": 2, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.7142857142857143, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 7, "observed_starters": 5, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-07-16", "race_id": "2025-07-16|SAR|2", "race_no": "2", "track": "SAR" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.625, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 8, "observed_starters": 5, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-04-25", "race_id": "2025-04-25|KEE|7", "race_no": "7", "track": "KEE" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 0.53125, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0.25, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 0.78125, "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 86.54658494934291, "v1_identity": "DONTWORRYBOUTNOTHN|22|G", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 5.270583544925876, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.15947479095612957, "v1_reference_rank": 2, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 7.1767938853024305 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0.24750000000000003, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.375, "days_since_last_observed_race": 372, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 0.6000000000000001, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #3 with an estimated 11.9% win chance. Model fair odds are 7.4-1 versus a 8.0-1 morning line. Near model fair. The horse has been away 372 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 8, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "NATIVE BREW", "internal_exotic_role": "Exotic include watch — underneath", "internal_exotic_role_basis": "Morning-line proxy only; historical validation used final odds", "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_signal": "Near model fair", "ml_value_ratio": 1.0749795365199166, "model_fair_odds": 7.372252395739677, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.02350454826530514, "model_win_probability": 0.11944217072443518, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.09593762245913004, "morning_line_odds": 8, "morning_line_rank": 4, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "previous_race_date": "2025-08-08", "prior_observed_starts": 1, "program_number": "1", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|5", "race_no": 5, "race_type": "MSW", "rating": 80.15552101187232, "rating_gap_from_top": 13.567857822773021, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 0.6, "same_surface_share": 1, "seed": 78.1764889833211, "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "YAUPON", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 1, "partial_field_races": 1, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.6, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 10, "observed_starters": 6, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-08-08", "race_id": "2025-08-08|ELP|6", "race_no": "6", "track": "ELP" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 0.6, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 0.6, "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 80.15552101187232, "v1_identity": "NATIVE BREW|23|C", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 7.372252395739677, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.11944217072443518, "v1_reference_rank": 3, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 13.567857822773021 }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.375, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "MAYFIELD", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.1569888367513037, "morning_line_odds": 4.5, "morning_line_rank": 2, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "3", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|5", "race_no": 5, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.375, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "C'S TODAY", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.02785285813329582, "morning_line_odds": 30, "morning_line_rank": 7, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "6", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|5", "race_no": 5, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.375, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "DADE", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.07849441837565185, "morning_line_odds": 10, "morning_line_rank": 5, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "8", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|5", "race_no": 5, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.375, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "CAMPOBASSO", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.35976608422173767, "morning_line_odds": 1.4, "morning_line_rank": 1, "past_performance_count": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "9", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|5", "race_no": 5, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "STREET SENSE", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null }, { "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.375, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1320, "explanation": "No dependable MCRS rating is available because this horse has no linked prior archive identity.", "field_size": 8, "horse": "CRAVE A BALL", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "ml_signal": "Unavailable", "ml_value_ratio": null, "model_minus_ml_probability": null, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.041116123911055735, "morning_line_odds": 20, "morning_line_rank": 6, "past_performance_count": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "10", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|5", "race_no": 5, "race_type": "MSW", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "NOT LISTED", "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "surface": "dirt", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null } ], "internal_exotic_role_watches": [ { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "NATIVE BREW", "internal_exotic_role": "Exotic include watch — underneath", "internal_exotic_role_basis": "Morning-line proxy only; historical validation used final odds", "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_value_ratio": 1.0749795365199166, "model_fair_odds": 7.372252395739677, "model_win_probability": 0.11944217072443518, "morning_line_odds": 8, "program_number": "1", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "top4_probability": null } ], "longshot_exotic_includes": [], "morning_line_value_watch": null, "most_likely_winner": { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "GREAT MOMENT", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_value_ratio": 1.9856483756830083, "model_fair_odds": 3.5325245447368028, "model_win_probability": 0.22062759729811204, "morning_line_odds": 8, "program_number": "7", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "top4_probability": null }, "non_actionable_rated_horses": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_reason": "Position probabilities require 80-100% coverage and at least four rated entrants.", "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "race_confidence": "PASS", "race_confidence_reason": "MCRS #1 is outside the first two morning-line choices.", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|5", "race_no": 5, "race_type": "MSW", "rated_horses": 3, "superfecta_core": [], "surface": "dirt", "trifecta_core": [], "unrated_horses": 5 }, { "actionable_horses": 6, "advance_action": "Rankings and exotics; no validated advance win bet", "coverage_ratio": 0.75, "distance_yards": 1210, "exacta_core": [ { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "TALIESIN", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_value_ratio": 0.8549593390228648, "model_fair_odds": 6.017877606737901, "model_win_probability": 0.14249322317047747, "morning_line_odds": 5, "program_number": "5", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Most likely winner", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "ROJO RITA", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 2, "ml_value_ratio": 0.9820267143761547, "model_fair_odds": 6.128115658693502, "model_win_probability": 0.14028953062516497, "morning_line_odds": 6, "program_number": "2", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "HIGH FASHION KATE", "internal_exotic_role": "Exotic include watch — underneath", "internal_exotic_role_basis": "Morning-line proxy only; historical validation used final odds", "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_value_ratio": 1.1702582736633411, "model_fair_odds": 6.690610015365815, "model_win_probability": 0.13002869707370457, "morning_line_odds": 8, "program_number": "9", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null } ], "field_size": 8, "historical_shadow_candidate": null, "horses": [ { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0.2871, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.75, "days_since_last_observed_race": 205, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1210, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 1, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #1 with an estimated 14.2% win chance. Model fair odds are 6.0-1 versus a 5.0-1 morning line. Near model fair. Most rating evidence came on a different surface. The horse has been away 205 days. 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Model fair odds are 6.7-1 versus a 8.0-1 morning line. Near model fair. The horse has been away 108 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 8, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "HIGH FASHION KATE", "internal_exotic_role": "Exotic include watch — underneath", "internal_exotic_role_basis": "Morning-line proxy only; historical validation used final odds", "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_signal": "Near model fair", "ml_value_ratio": 1.1702582736633411, "model_fair_odds": 6.690610015365815, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.01704263691229592, "model_win_probability": 0.13002869707370457, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.11298606016140865, "morning_line_odds": 8, "morning_line_rank": 4, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "previous_race_date": "2026-04-29", "prior_observed_starts": 8, "program_number": "9", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|6", "race_no": 6, "race_type": "AlwOptClm", "rating": 91.68615455279576, "rating_gap_from_top": 2.0239618496358673, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 2.1615277777777777, "same_surface_share": 0.9642479942256749, "seed": 90.28433398451752, "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "DEMARCHELIER", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 8, "partial_field_races": 7, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.8888888888888888, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 9, "observed_starters": 8, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-29", "race_id": "2026-04-29|CD|7", "race_no": "7", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.6, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 10, "observed_starters": 6, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-06-05", "race_id": "2025-06-05|CD|7", "race_no": "7", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.5833333333333334, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 12, "observed_starters": 7, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-05-01", "race_id": "2025-05-01|CD|4", "race_no": "4", "track": "CD" } ], "singleton_field_races": 1, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "surface": "turf", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 0.08014427207031247, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 2.1615277777777777, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 2.24167204984809, "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 91.68615455279576, "v1_identity": "HIGH FASHION KATE|21|M", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 6.690610015365815, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.13002869707370457, "v1_reference_rank": 3, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 2.0239618496358673 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0.2871, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.75, "days_since_last_observed_race": 107, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1210, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 1, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #4 with an estimated 12.8% win chance. Model fair odds are 6.8-1 versus a 8.0-1 morning line. Near model fair. Most rating evidence came on a different surface. The horse has been away 107 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 8, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "INSIGHTFUL MISS", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5", "dominant_evidence_from_different_surface" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 4, "ml_signal": "Near model fair", "ml_value_ratio": 1.1529288535244844, "model_fair_odds": 6.806205883812474, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.015117145785756278, "model_win_probability": 0.12810320594716493, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.11298606016140865, "morning_line_odds": 8, "morning_line_rank": 4, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "previous_race_date": "2026-04-30", "prior_observed_starts": 13, "program_number": "4", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|6", "race_no": 6, "race_type": "AlwOptClm", "rating": 91.35629218582129, "rating_gap_from_top": 2.3538242166103345, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 0, "same_surface_share": 0, "seed": 89.30477834706261, "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "DOMINUS", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 13, "partial_field_races": 8, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.5, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 8, "observed_starters": 4, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-30", "race_id": "2026-04-30|OP|7", "race_no": "7", "track": "OP" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.5, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 8, "observed_starters": 4, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-04", "race_id": "2026-04-04|OP|7", "race_no": "7", "track": "OP" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.875, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 8, "observed_starters": 7, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-03-13", "race_id": "2026-03-13|OP|6", "race_no": "6", "track": "OP" } ], "singleton_field_races": 5, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "surface": "turf", "surface_confidence": "cross_surface_warning", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 0.9999999999999999, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 0.9999999999999999, "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 91.35629218582129, "v1_identity": "INSIGHTFUL MISS|20|M", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 6.806205883812474, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.12810320594716493, "v1_reference_rank": 4, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 2.3538242166103345 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "C", "confidence_score": 0.532125, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.75, "days_since_last_observed_race": 8, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1210, "dominant_share": 0.564422659931068, "dominant_surface": "turf", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 2.2958035416666664, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #5 with an estimated 12.7% win chance. Model fair odds are 6.9-1 versus a 8.0-1 morning line. Near model fair. The surface evidence is mixed. 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Model fair odds are 7.4-1 versus a 8.0-1 morning line. Near model fair. The horse has been away 115 days. 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"model_win_probability": 0.14028953062516497, "morning_line_odds": 6, "program_number": "2", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "HIGH FASHION KATE", "internal_exotic_role": "Exotic include watch — underneath", "internal_exotic_role_basis": "Morning-line proxy only; historical validation used final odds", "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_value_ratio": 1.1702582736633411, "model_fair_odds": 6.690610015365815, "model_win_probability": 0.13002869707370457, "morning_line_odds": 8, "program_number": "9", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "INSIGHTFUL MISS", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 4, "ml_value_ratio": 1.1529288535244844, "model_fair_odds": 6.806205883812474, "model_win_probability": 0.12810320594716493, "morning_line_odds": 8, "program_number": "4", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "C", "horse": "WISCONSIN GAL", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 5, "ml_value_ratio": 1.1443154314116355, "model_fair_odds": 6.864964286025171, "model_win_probability": 0.12714615904573728, "morning_line_odds": 8, "program_number": "3", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null } ], "surface": "turf", "trifecta_core": [ { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "TALIESIN", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_value_ratio": 0.8549593390228648, "model_fair_odds": 6.017877606737901, "model_win_probability": 0.14249322317047747, "morning_line_odds": 5, "program_number": "5", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Most likely winner", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "ROJO RITA", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 2, "ml_value_ratio": 0.9820267143761547, "model_fair_odds": 6.128115658693502, "model_win_probability": 0.14028953062516497, "morning_line_odds": 6, "program_number": "2", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "HIGH FASHION KATE", "internal_exotic_role": "Exotic include watch — underneath", "internal_exotic_role_basis": "Morning-line proxy only; historical validation used final odds", "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_value_ratio": 1.1702582736633411, "model_fair_odds": 6.690610015365815, "model_win_probability": 0.13002869707370457, "morning_line_odds": 8, "program_number": "9", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "INSIGHTFUL MISS", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 4, "ml_value_ratio": 1.1529288535244844, "model_fair_odds": 6.806205883812474, "model_win_probability": 0.12810320594716493, "morning_line_odds": 8, "program_number": "4", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null } ], "unrated_horses": 2 }, { "actionable_horses": 6, "advance_action": "Rankings and exotics; no validated advance win bet", "coverage_ratio": 0.8571428571428571, "distance_yards": 1430, "exacta_core": [ { "confidence_grade": "C", "horse": "ZAMBEZI", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_value_ratio": 0.5857360483647134, "model_fair_odds": 3.780310188893406, "model_win_probability": 0.2091914458445405, "morning_line_odds": 1.8, "program_number": "1", "shadow_top4_probability": 0.7446909213962825, "subscriber_role": "Most likely winner", "top4_probability": 0.8180461326754476 }, { "confidence_grade": "C", "horse": "SOCIAL HOUR", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 2, "ml_value_ratio": 1.5511955318929014, "model_fair_odds": 4.801976485206498, "model_win_probability": 0.17235505909921126, "morning_line_odds": 8, "program_number": "9", "shadow_top4_probability": 0.6767224983103075, "subscriber_role": "Primary exotic contender", "top4_probability": 0.7577912777105437 }, { "confidence_grade": "C", "horse": "KAVOD", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_value_ratio": 0.5479988478325949, "model_fair_odds": 6.299285419705732, "model_win_probability": 0.13699971195814872, "morning_line_odds": 3, "program_number": "5", "shadow_top4_probability": 0.5907047992006678, "subscriber_role": "Primary exotic contender", "top4_probability": 0.6756352085166415 } ], "field_size": 7, "historical_shadow_candidate": null, "horses": [ { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "C", "confidence_score": 0.528, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": 0.4010543098643951, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": 0.5736118609768535, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": 0.724280589509025, "coverage_ratio": 0.8571428571428571, "days_since_last_observed_race": 105, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1430, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 3.285163355208354, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #1 with an estimated 20.9% win chance. Model fair odds are 3.8-1 versus a 1.8-1 morning line. Below model fair. The horse has been away 105 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 7, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "ZAMBEZI", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_signal": "Below model fair", "ml_value_ratio": 0.5857360483647134, "model_fair_odds": 3.780310188893406, "model_minus_ml_probability": -0.12344190148851283, "model_win_probability": 0.2091914458445405, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.33263334733305333, "morning_line_odds": 1.8, "morning_line_rank": 1, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": "current_rated_only", "position_probability_shadow_model": "discovery_frozen_coverage_hybrid", "position_probability_status": "current_primary_hybrid_shadow", "previous_race_date": "2026-05-02", "prior_observed_starts": 12, "program_number": "1", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|7", "race_no": 7, "race_type": "Claiming", "rating": 107.88940519348496, "rating_gap_from_top": 0, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 3.285163355208354, "same_surface_share": 1, "seed": 98.49123102664073, "shadow_top2_probability": 0.41553083034257976, "shadow_top3_probability": 0.5928720892585392, "shadow_top4_probability": 0.7446909213962825, "sire": "CANDY RIDE", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 12, "partial_field_races": 11, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.45454545454545453, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 11, "observed_starters": 5, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-05-02", "race_id": "2026-05-02|OP|4", "race_no": "4", "track": "OP" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.375, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 8, "observed_starters": 3, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-04", "race_id": "2026-04-04|EVD|9", "race_no": "9", "track": "EVD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.5, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 4, "observed_starters": 2, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-11-21", "race_id": "2025-11-21|CD|1", "race_no": "1", "track": "CD" } ], "singleton_field_races": 1, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Most likely winner", "surface": "dirt", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 3.285163355208354, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 3.285163355208354, "top2_probability": 0.4699797685021672, "top3_probability": 0.6613809421646393, "top4_probability": 0.8180461326754476, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 107.88940519348496, "v1_identity": "ZAMBEZI|20|G", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 3.780310188893406, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.2091914458445405, "v1_reference_rank": 1, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 0 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "C", "confidence_score": 0.66, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": 0.34013322568135773, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": 0.5015868147806856, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": 0.6541659455528397, "coverage_ratio": 0.8571428571428571, "days_since_last_observed_race": 79, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1430, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 4.562180519377923, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #2 with an estimated 17.2% win chance. Model fair odds are 4.8-1 versus a 8.0-1 morning line. Strong ML discrepancy. 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"internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 2, "ml_value_ratio": 1.5511955318929014, "model_fair_odds": 4.801976485206498, "model_win_probability": 0.17235505909921126, "morning_line_odds": 8, "program_number": "9", "shadow_top4_probability": 0.6767224983103075, "subscriber_role": "Primary exotic contender", "top4_probability": 0.7577912777105437 }, { "confidence_grade": "C", "horse": "KAVOD", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_value_ratio": 0.5479988478325949, "model_fair_odds": 6.299285419705732, "model_win_probability": 0.13699971195814872, "morning_line_odds": 3, "program_number": "5", "shadow_top4_probability": 0.5907047992006678, "subscriber_role": "Primary exotic contender", "top4_probability": 0.6756352085166415 }, { "confidence_grade": "C", "horse": "SHIP SHIP HOORAY", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 4, "ml_value_ratio": 1.222433604740346, "model_fair_odds": 7.998443725159602, "model_win_probability": 0.11113032770366782, "morning_line_odds": 10, "program_number": "8", "shadow_top4_probability": 0.5116876780796302, "subscriber_role": "Longshot exotic include", "top4_probability": 0.5944660503121137 } ], "unrated_horses": 1 }, { "actionable_horses": 4, "advance_action": "Rankings and exotics; no validated advance win bet", "coverage_ratio": 0.5, "distance_yards": 1870, "exacta_core": [ { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "PATROL SQUAD SIX", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_value_ratio": 1.2361677250483543, "model_fair_odds": 4.662661998173578, "model_win_probability": 0.17659538929262203, "morning_line_odds": 6, "program_number": "3", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Most likely winner", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "RAPOPORT", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 2, "ml_value_ratio": 1.3968456747728994, "model_fair_odds": 5.4430882827934655, "model_win_probability": 0.1552050749747666, "morning_line_odds": 8, "program_number": "7", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Morning-line value watch", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "HIGHLY CONNECTED", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_value_ratio": 1.021108517745017, "model_fair_odds": 5.8552948862463445, "model_win_probability": 0.14587264539214528, "morning_line_odds": 6, "program_number": "5", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null } ], "field_size": 8, "historical_shadow_candidate": null, "horses": [ { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0.33000000000000007, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.5, "days_since_last_observed_race": 118, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1870, "dominant_share": 0.8992013911694345, "dominant_surface": "turf", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 2.4585520750868053, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #1 with an estimated 17.7% win chance. Model fair odds are 4.7-1 versus a 6.0-1 morning line. Positive ML discrepancy. The horse has been away 118 days. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 8, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "PATROL SQUAD SIX", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": true, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_signal": "Positive ML discrepancy", "ml_value_ratio": 1.2361677250483543, "model_fair_odds": 4.662661998173578, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.029122030750167588, "model_win_probability": 0.17659538929262203, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.14747335854245444, "morning_line_odds": 6, "morning_line_rank": 2, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "previous_race_date": "2026-04-19", "prior_observed_starts": 7, "program_number": "3", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|8", "race_no": 8, "race_type": "Allowance", "rating": 94.50335760647988, "rating_gap_from_top": 0, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 2.210733446180556, "same_surface_share": 0.8992013911694345, "seed": 88.82038763845809, "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "MIDSHIPMAN", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 7, "partial_field_races": 7, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.5833333333333334, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 12, "observed_starters": 7, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-04-19", "race_id": "2026-04-19|KEE|6", "race_no": "6", "track": "KEE" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.875, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 8, "observed_starters": 7, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-03-12", "race_id": "2026-03-12|GP|8", "race_no": "8", "track": "GP" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.8888888888888888, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 9, "observed_starters": 8, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-01-11", "race_id": "2026-01-11|GP|10", "race_no": "10", "track": "GP" } ], "singleton_field_races": 0, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Most likely winner", "surface": "turf", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 0.24781862890624995, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 2.210733446180556, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 2.4585520750868057, "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 94.50335760647988, "v1_identity": "PATROL SQUAD SIX|23|C", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 4.662661998173578, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.17659538929262203, "v1_reference_rank": 1, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 0 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0.41250000000000003, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.5, "days_since_last_observed_race": 78, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1870, "dominant_share": 0.8072804299219394, "dominant_surface": "turf", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 0.79665625, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #2 with an estimated 15.5% win chance. Model fair odds are 5.4-1 versus a 8.0-1 morning line. Positive ML discrepancy. The rating is based on limited evidence.", "field_coverage_level_2_review_reason": "recent_historical_field_coverage_incomplete", "field_coverage_level_2_review_required": true, "field_size": 8, "foreign_form_bridge_eligible": false, "foreign_form_calibration_id": null, "foreign_starts_missing_bris_speed": 0, "foreign_starts_on_card": 0, "foreign_track_codes": [], "horse": "RAPOPORT", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "jockey": null, "known_north_american_starts_on_card": 0, "layoff_over_90_flag": false, "level_2_review_reasons": [ "relational_evidence_below_5" ], "level_2_review_required": true, "mcrs_rank": 2, "ml_signal": "Positive ML discrepancy", "ml_value_ratio": 1.3968456747728994, "model_fair_odds": 5.4430882827934655, "model_minus_ml_probability": 0.04050357388619091, "model_win_probability": 0.1552050749747666, "morning_line_normalized_probability": 0.11470150108857569, "morning_line_odds": 8, "morning_line_rank": 3, "past_performance_count": 1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "previous_race_date": "2026-05-29", "prior_observed_starts": 5, "program_number": "7", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|8", "race_no": 8, "race_type": "Allowance", "rating": 91.64860952342283, "rating_gap_from_top": 2.8547480830570464, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 0.643125, "same_surface_share": 0.8072804299219394, "seed": 88.44460227876225, "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "CONSTITUTION", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 0, "historical_races": 5, "partial_field_races": 4, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.5, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 8, "observed_starters": 4, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2026-05-29", "race_id": "2026-05-29|CD|3", "race_no": "3", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.6666666666666666, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 12, "observed_starters": 8, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-11-01", "race_id": "2025-11-01|CD|11", "race_no": "11", "track": "CD" }, { "coverage_ratio": 0.75, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 12, "observed_starters": 9, "official_chart_present": false, "race_date": "2025-10-22", "race_id": "2025-10-22|KEE|4", "race_no": "4", "track": "KEE" } ], "singleton_field_races": 1, "unknown_declared_field_races": 0 }, "subscriber_role": "Morning-line value watch", "surface": "turf", "surface_confidence": "same_surface_supported", "surface_evidence": { "dirt": 0.15353124999999998, "synthetic": 0, "turf": 0.643125, "unknown": 0 }, "surface_evidence_total": 0.79665625, "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null, "unconverted_mcrs_rating": 91.64860952342283, "v1_identity": "RAPOPORT|21|G", "v1_reference_model_fair_odds": 5.4430882827934655, "v1_reference_model_win_probability": 0.1552050749747666, "v1_reference_rank": 2, "v1_reference_rating_gap_from_top": 2.8547480830570464 }, { "actionability_basis": "complete_rating_order", "actionability_reasons": [], "actionability_status": "actionable_with_review", "actionable_for_wagering": true, "bris_prime_power": null, "confidence_grade": "D", "confidence_score": 0.23925, "converted_bris_prime_power_rating": null, "coverage_aware_top2_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top3_probability": null, "coverage_aware_top4_probability": null, "coverage_ratio": 0.5, "days_since_last_observed_race": 84, "days_since_last_race_source": null, "distance_yards": 1870, "dominant_share": 1, "dominant_surface": "dirt", "evidence_band": "thin_under_5", "evidence_score": 0.9999999999999998, "explanation": "MCRS ranks this horse #3 with an estimated 14.6% win chance. Model fair odds are 5.9-1 versus a 6.0-1 morning line. Near model fair. Most rating evidence came on a different surface. 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Model fair odds are 6.7-1 versus a 4.5-1 morning line. Below model fair. 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1, "past_performance_count_on_card": 1, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "previous_race_date": "2026-05-24", "prior_observed_starts": 9, "program_number": "9", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|8", "race_no": 8, "race_type": "Allowance", "rating": 87.6652810899495, "rating_gap_from_top": 6.8380765165303785, "rating_source": "mcrs_relational", "rating_status": "rated", "same_surface_evidence": 3.116042991635101, "same_surface_share": 0.9504613883204088, "seed": 92.92640033822498, "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "STREET SENSE", "source_field_coverage": { "complete_field_races": 1, "historical_races": 9, "partial_field_races": 8, "recent_limit": 3, "recent_races": [ { "coverage_ratio": 0.5454545454545454, "coverage_status": "partial", "declared_field_size": 11, "observed_starters": 6, "official_chart_present": false, 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"position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "program_number": "11", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|8", "race_no": 8, "race_type": "Allowance", "rating_status": "unrated_no_prior_archive_identity", "shadow_top2_probability": null, "shadow_top3_probability": null, "shadow_top4_probability": null, "sire": "FROSTED", "subscriber_role": "Unrated", "surface": "turf", "top2_probability": null, "top3_probability": null, "top4_probability": null, "trainer": null } ], "internal_exotic_role_watches": [], "longshot_exotic_includes": [], "morning_line_value_watch": null, "most_likely_winner": { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "PATROL SQUAD SIX", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_value_ratio": 1.2361677250483543, "model_fair_odds": 4.662661998173578, "model_win_probability": 0.17659538929262203, "morning_line_odds": 6, "program_number": "3", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Most likely winner", "top4_probability": null }, "non_actionable_rated_horses": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_reason": "Position probabilities require 80-100% coverage and at least four rated entrants.", "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "race_confidence": "B", "race_confidence_reason": "The top choice has a meaningful evidence or layoff caution.", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|8", "race_no": 8, "race_type": "Allowance", "rated_horses": 4, "superfecta_core": [ { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "PATROL SQUAD SIX", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_value_ratio": 1.2361677250483543, "model_fair_odds": 4.662661998173578, "model_win_probability": 0.17659538929262203, "morning_line_odds": 6, "program_number": "3", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Most likely winner", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "RAPOPORT", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 2, "ml_value_ratio": 1.3968456747728994, "model_fair_odds": 5.4430882827934655, "model_win_probability": 0.1552050749747666, "morning_line_odds": 8, "program_number": "7", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Morning-line value watch", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "HIGHLY CONNECTED", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_value_ratio": 1.021108517745017, "model_fair_odds": 5.8552948862463445, "model_win_probability": 0.14587264539214528, "morning_line_odds": 6, "program_number": "5", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "KING OF ASHES", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 4, "ml_value_ratio": 0.7128980054681874, "model_fair_odds": 6.714988620830745, "model_win_probability": 0.12961781917603407, "morning_line_odds": 4.5, "program_number": "9", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null } ], "surface": "turf", "trifecta_core": [ { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "PATROL SQUAD SIX", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_value_ratio": 1.2361677250483543, "model_fair_odds": 4.662661998173578, "model_win_probability": 0.17659538929262203, "morning_line_odds": 6, "program_number": "3", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Most likely winner", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "RAPOPORT", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 2, "ml_value_ratio": 1.3968456747728994, "model_fair_odds": 5.4430882827934655, "model_win_probability": 0.1552050749747666, "morning_line_odds": 8, "program_number": "7", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Morning-line value watch", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "HIGHLY CONNECTED", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 3, "ml_value_ratio": 1.021108517745017, "model_fair_odds": 5.8552948862463445, "model_win_probability": 0.14587264539214528, "morning_line_odds": 6, "program_number": "5", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null }, { "confidence_grade": "D", "horse": "KING OF ASHES", "internal_exotic_role": null, "internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 4, "ml_value_ratio": 0.7128980054681874, "model_fair_odds": 6.714988620830745, "model_win_probability": 0.12961781917603407, "morning_line_odds": 4.5, "program_number": "9", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Fringe / pass", "top4_probability": null } ], "unrated_horses": 4 }, { "actionable_horses": 3, "advance_action": "Pass", "coverage_ratio": 0.3333333333333333, "distance_yards": 1210, "exacta_core": [], 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"internal_exotic_role_basis": null, "mcrs_rank": 1, "ml_value_ratio": 0.8337813033590785, "model_fair_odds": 4.996776348733603, "model_win_probability": 0.1667562606718157, "morning_line_odds": 4, "program_number": "2", "shadow_top4_probability": null, "subscriber_role": "Pass / insufficient coverage", "top4_probability": null }, "non_actionable_rated_horses": 0, "position_probability_primary_model": null, "position_probability_reason": "Position probabilities require 80-100% coverage and at least four rated entrants.", "position_probability_shadow_model": null, "position_probability_status": "suppressed", "race_confidence": "PASS", "race_confidence_reason": "MCRS #1 is outside the first two morning-line choices.", "race_id": "2026-08-15|ELP|9", "race_no": 9, "race_type": "MdClm", "rated_horses": 3, "superfecta_core": [], "surface": "turf", "trifecta_core": [], "unrated_horses": 6 } ], "source": { "projection_path": "/Users/markmcgreevy/Documents/Projects/MCRS/acquisitions/2026-08-15/condition_adjusted/ellis-park/ELP0815.current.projection.json", "projection_sha256": "69ae9ba48c9a2d8a8cc4b166b6c6f097900ff593af6a0092d7d0f34dba084dc5", "staging_path": "/Users/markmcgreevy/Documents/Projects/MCRS/acquisitions/2026-08-15/condition_adjusted/ellis-park/ELP0815.current.staging.json", "staging_sha256": "2d406dd8e4b6b705f94a026f15bd26b7df53b66830032ed16a9a931c05dc8fdb" }, "status": "SHADOW_RESEARCH_NOT_APPROVED_AS_A_BETTING_SYSTEM", "summary": { "actionable_horses": 36, "advance_win_shadow_candidates": 0, "horses": 77, "internal_exotic_role_watches": 5, "longshot_exotic_includes": 2, "non_actionable_rated_horses": 0, "partial_coverage_shadow_races": 2, "pass_races": 6, "races": 9, "rated_horses": 36, "unrated_horses": 41 } }, "companyLines": { "contract": "MCRS-COMPANY-LINE-EVIDENCE-0.1.0", "generated_at": "2026-08-16T10:54:45.192606Z", "card": { "track": "ELP", "date": "2026-08-15", "horses": 100 }, "source": { "container_path": "/Users/markmcgreevy/Documents/Projects/MCRS/acquisitions/2026-08-15/ellis_reconstruction/ELP0815_RECONSTRUCTED_OFFICIAL_ENTRIES.DRF", "container_sha256": "036c321c740103cc7fcb35c2bf78a7ccabe723ec562b5eba25f8b2e1b65ff257", "document_name": "ELP0815_RECONSTRUCTED_OFFICIAL_ENTRIES.DRF", "document_sha256": "036c321c740103cc7fcb35c2bf78a7ccabe723ec562b5eba25f8b2e1b65ff257", "archive_documents_included": 382 }, "method": { "information_cutoff": "2026-08-15", "starts_per_horse": 3, "future_results_after_card_included": false, "protected_v1_changed": false, "next_out_rule": "First observed start after the cited race and before the target card date." }, "horses": { "WHAT'S HER NUMBER": { "race_no": 1, "horse": "WHAT'S HER NUMBER", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "SYNOPTIC": { "race_no": 1, "horse": "SYNOPTIC", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "RELEVATE": { "race_no": 1, "horse": "RELEVATE", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "I'M A COOKIE LOVER": { "race_no": 1, "horse": "I'M A COOKIE LOVER", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "MACLEAN'S LULLABY": { "race_no": 1, "horse": "MACLEAN'S LULLABY", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "HONEY'S ON FIRE": { "race_no": 1, "horse": "HONEY'S ON FIRE", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "TUMBLEWEED QUEEN": { "race_no": 1, "horse": "TUMBLEWEED QUEEN", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "MO INDIAN LADY": { "race_no": 1, "horse": "MO INDIAN LADY", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "WHISKEY BUSINESS": { "race_no": 1, "horse": "WHISKEY BUSINESS", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "BELONGTOTHENAVY": { "race_no": 1, "horse": "BELONGTOTHENAVY", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "DIAGRAM": { "race_no": 1, "horse": "DIAGRAM", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "ZIMOMO": { "race_no": 2, "horse": "ZIMOMO", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "KING CRUSHER": { "race_no": 2, "horse": "KING CRUSHER", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "BLAME THROWER": { "race_no": 2, "horse": "BLAME THROWER", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "MR. FETE": { "race_no": 2, "horse": "MR. FETE", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "HIGH STATUS": { "race_no": 2, "horse": "HIGH STATUS", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "FARAZ": { "race_no": 2, "horse": "FARAZ", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "AMAZING MAX": { "race_no": 2, "horse": "AMAZING MAX", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "CAFHAH": { "race_no": 2, "horse": "CAFHAH", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "DREAMY LEX": { "race_no": 2, "horse": "DREAMY LEX", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "SILVERBACK": { "race_no": 2, "horse": "SILVERBACK", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "WHISKEY NEAT": { "race_no": 2, "horse": "WHISKEY NEAT", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "WHAT'S UP DOG": { "race_no": 3, "horse": "WHAT'S UP DOG", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "NO TIME LEFT": { "race_no": 3, "horse": "NO TIME LEFT", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "BRUNIA": { "race_no": 3, "horse": "BRUNIA", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "QUINN'S PROMISE": { "race_no": 3, "horse": "QUINN'S PROMISE", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "BEAUXBATONS": { "race_no": 3, "horse": "BEAUXBATONS", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "FOOLISH FRONT FIFI": { "race_no": 3, "horse": "FOOLISH FRONT FIFI", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "NOROOMFORMISCHIEF": { "race_no": 3, "horse": "NOROOMFORMISCHIEF", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "STEPHENS DREAM": { "race_no": 3, "horse": "STEPHENS DREAM", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "POPPY WOPPY": { "race_no": 3, "horse": "POPPY WOPPY", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "CLOUD NUMBER NINE": { "race_no": 3, "horse": "CLOUD NUMBER NINE", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "RANSLILDREAM": { "race_no": 3, "horse": "RANSLILDREAM", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "CASTIGLIONE": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "CASTIGLIONE", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "MYSTIC RULER": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "MYSTIC RULER", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "EPIC ROLL": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "EPIC ROLL", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "BOLD SPEAKER": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "BOLD SPEAKER", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "TRAVELIN": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "TRAVELIN", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "PRIDE ROCK": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "PRIDE ROCK", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "CARIBBEAN WARRIOR": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "CARIBBEAN WARRIOR", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "WYGUY": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "WYGUY", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "MARKET CLOSED": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "MARKET CLOSED", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "FOOLISH OPTIMIST": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "FOOLISH OPTIMIST", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "SOCIAL DECEPTION": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "SOCIAL DECEPTION", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "TAKE CHARGE BEACH": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "TAKE CHARGE BEACH", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "HENRIQUES": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "HENRIQUES", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "FERROUS": { "race_no": 4, "horse": "FERROUS", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "NATIVE BREW": { "race_no": 5, "horse": "NATIVE BREW", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "MIZZOU": { "race_no": 5, "horse": "MIZZOU", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "MAYFIELD": { "race_no": 5, "horse": "MAYFIELD", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "DONTWORRYBOUTNOTHN": { "race_no": 5, "horse": "DONTWORRYBOUTNOTHN", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "RENAISSANCE MUSIC": { "race_no": 5, "horse": "RENAISSANCE MUSIC", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "C'S TODAY": { "race_no": 5, "horse": "C'S TODAY", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "GREAT MOMENT": { "race_no": 5, "horse": "GREAT MOMENT", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "DADE": { "race_no": 5, "horse": "DADE", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "CAMPOBASSO": { "race_no": 5, "horse": "CAMPOBASSO", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "CRAVE A BALL": { "race_no": 5, "horse": "CRAVE A BALL", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "SWEET KAUFY": { "race_no": 6, "horse": "SWEET KAUFY", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "ROJO RITA": { "race_no": 6, "horse": "ROJO RITA", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "WISCONSIN GAL": { "race_no": 6, "horse": "WISCONSIN GAL", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "INSIGHTFUL MISS": { "race_no": 6, "horse": "INSIGHTFUL MISS", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "TALIESIN": { "race_no": 6, "horse": "TALIESIN", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "TEMPTABLE": { "race_no": 6, "horse": "TEMPTABLE", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "ROCKET RANIA": { "race_no": 6, "horse": "ROCKET RANIA", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "DON'T SAY IT": { "race_no": 6, "horse": "DON'T SAY IT", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "HIGH FASHION KATE": { "race_no": 6, "horse": "HIGH FASHION KATE", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "ZAMBEZI": { "race_no": 7, "horse": "ZAMBEZI", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "SECRET CHAT": { "race_no": 7, "horse": "SECRET CHAT", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "ALDER": { "race_no": 7, "horse": "ALDER", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "DR RUBEN M": { "race_no": 7, "horse": "DR RUBEN M", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "KAVOD": { "race_no": 7, "horse": "KAVOD", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "FORT SAM": { "race_no": 7, "horse": "FORT SAM", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "KEEP ON MOVING": { "race_no": 7, "horse": "KEEP ON MOVING", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "SHIP SHIP HOORAY": { "race_no": 7, "horse": "SHIP SHIP HOORAY", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "SOCIAL HOUR": { "race_no": 7, "horse": "SOCIAL HOUR", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "LUCKY MISCHIEF": { "race_no": 8, "horse": "LUCKY MISCHIEF", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "DEMETRIUS": { "race_no": 8, "horse": "DEMETRIUS", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "PATROL SQUAD SIX": { "race_no": 8, "horse": "PATROL SQUAD SIX", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "IRISH LAW": { "race_no": 8, "horse": "IRISH LAW", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "HIGHLY CONNECTED": { "race_no": 8, "horse": "HIGHLY CONNECTED", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "NATURAL RIGHTS": { "race_no": 8, "horse": "NATURAL RIGHTS", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "RAPOPORT": { "race_no": 8, "horse": "RAPOPORT", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "DAWN DRAGON": { "race_no": 8, "horse": "DAWN DRAGON", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "KING OF ASHES": { "race_no": 8, "horse": "KING OF ASHES", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "DOCTRINE": { "race_no": 8, "horse": "DOCTRINE", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "WINTER HOLIDAY": { "race_no": 8, "horse": "WINTER HOLIDAY", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "RALLEY TO ME": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "RALLEY TO ME", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "HEITZGIRL": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "HEITZGIRL", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "LOVES TO FISH": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "LOVES TO FISH", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "WAITING FOR YOU": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "WAITING FOR YOU", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "PRINCESS JULIE": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "PRINCESS JULIE", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "MO BISCUIT": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "MO BISCUIT", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "LINDY CAN": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "LINDY CAN", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "YASMIN": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "YASMIN", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "DIAMONDINTHEROUGH": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "DIAMONDINTHEROUGH", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "ABITA SPRINGS": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "ABITA SPRINGS", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "GIVEMETHEBEAT": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "GIVEMETHEBEAT", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "LIZ KNOWS BEST": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "LIZ KNOWS BEST", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "MISTRESSOFMISCHIEF": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "MISTRESSOFMISCHIEF", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } }, "LEGIT CHICK": { "race_no": 9, "horse": "LEGIT CHICK", "company_lines": [], "summary": { "prior_starts_shown": 0, "named_opponent_next_outs_observed": 0, "named_opponent_next_out_winners": 0, "archive_limit": "A missing next-out result means not observed in this archive, not that the horse did not run." } } } }, "historicalRatings": null, "scratchManifest": { "canceled_race_numbers": [], "card": { "condition_status": "VERIFIED", "date": "2026-08-15", "main_track_condition": "FAST", "track": "ELP" }, "classification_rule": "Every confirmed scratch is removed before customer calculations. The active field is reranked from the frozen V2-actionable ratings.", "contract": "MCRS-CARD-SCRATCH-LOCK-1.1.0", "off_turf_race_numbers": [], "races": [ { "early": [ { "horse": "WHAT'S HER NUMBER", "program_number": "1", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "TUMBLEWEED QUEEN", "program_number": "7", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "BELONGTOTHENAVY", "program_number": "10", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" } ], "late": [], "race_no": 1 }, { "early": [ { "horse": "ZIMOMO", "program_number": "1", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "DREAMY LEX", "program_number": "9", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "WHISKEY NEAT", "program_number": "11", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" } ], "late": [], "race_no": 2 }, { "early": [ { "horse": "SOCIAL DECEPTION", "program_number": "11", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "TAKE CHARGE BEACH", "program_number": "12", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "HENRIQUES", "program_number": "13", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "FERROUS", "program_number": "14", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" } ], "late": [], "race_no": 4 }, { "early": [ { "horse": "MIZZOU", "program_number": "2", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "RENAISSANCE MUSIC", "program_number": "5", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" } ], "late": [], "race_no": 5 }, { "early": [ { "horse": "TEMPTABLE", "program_number": "6", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" } ], "late": [], "race_no": 6 }, { "early": [ { "horse": "ALDER", "program_number": "3", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "KEEP ON MOVING", "program_number": "7", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" } ], "late": [], "race_no": 7 }, { "early": [ { "horse": "LUCKY MISCHIEF", "program_number": "1", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "DEMETRIUS", "program_number": "2", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "DOCTRINE", "program_number": "10", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" } ], "late": [], "race_no": 8 }, { "early": [ { "horse": "PRINCESS JULIE", "program_number": "5", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "MO BISCUIT", "program_number": "6", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "GIVEMETHEBEAT", "program_number": "11", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "MISTRESSOFMISCHIEF", "program_number": "13", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" }, { "horse": "LEGIT CHICK", "program_number": "14", "reason": "Official scratch - confirmed by Equibase entries and chart" } ], "late": [], "race_no": 9 } ], "source_last_updated_at_et": "2026-08-16 retrospective verification", "source_url": "https://tvg.equibase.com/static/entry/RaceCardIndexELP081526USA-EQB.html" }, "resultsAccess": true, "trackLinks": [ { "active": true, "href": "/cards/ellis-park/2026-08-15/", "label": "Ellis Park" }, { "active": false, "href": "/cards/saratoga/2026-08-15/", "label": "Saratoga" } ] }